ECS seeks a full-time, remote Research Associate, Seafood Economist to support Next Generation Input/Output Modeling. While remote candidates will be considered, preference will be given to candidates local to the Washington, DC metro area, including Silver Spring, MD.

Input-Output (IO) models are the workhorse modeling framework for estimating the broader impacts of fishing activity throughout the economy. These models, typically built on the IMPLAN framework, are used in multiple Regional Science Centers and at the Office of Science and Technology to provide managers and leadership with the top line economic impacts numbers they seek for management and policy making. Some of these models are decades old and need to be rebuilt and calibrated to reflect the current market structure and conditions (e.g., the advent of direct marketing).

The current FEUS commercial impacts model was largely based on data and the state of seafood markets around 2006. The model generates impacts estimates for four sectors: processors and dealers; wholesalers and distributors; grocers; and restaurants. Additionally, the model can be run with imports to provide estimates inclusive of all seafood related activity, or without imports which are intended to focus on impacts from U.S. domestic production. Spatially, the model provides estimates for the U.S. nation as a whole, regional estimates corresponding to the seven regional management bodies, and at the state level for the 26 coastal states that are primarily involved in the execution of commercial fishing efforts.

The current model needs to be updated along a number of different dimensions. The model was initially developed in excel based on data from IMPLAN. The model was then moved over into the R statistical software framework. NOAA Fisheries now has licenses for IMPLAN which is a cloud based service and would like the new model to be developed in this framework to facilitate updating the IMPLAN based data within the model. In addition to this the model needs to be updated to reflect the current market seafood from harvesters to consumers to better reflect the current product flow and to account for supply chain paths that have developed or become more prominent since the models initial development. The model uses harvest revenues and imports as inputs and where possible should be designed to leverage additional datasets that have become available since the model's development (see available data).

This project would hire an Input-Output model specialist to evaluate the current National Fisheries Impacts model and update the model as outlined here. This specialist would carry out the following tasks

Tasks to be Performed:

Phase 1: Project Scoping

• Work with NMFS researchers to broadly outline the modeling framework, species under consideration (including potential aggregation into species complexes), and refine objectives to guide data collection and modeling efforts.

Phase 2: Data Collection and Analysis

• Gather relevant data on fisheries and seafood volume, value, and prices as well as consumption, demographics, and economic indicators (see available data below).
  • Determine any data gaps and communicate those to NOAA Fisheries researchers.

Phase 3: Development of the National Commercial IO Model

• Develop a revised National Commercial IO Model that reflects the current structure of the seafood market.
• Calibrate the new National Commercial IO Model leveraging the most recent estimates available in the literature parameters.
• Validate the model with historical data and impacts estimates from the current National Commercial IO Model.
• Provide consultation to regional IO modeling efforts.
• As time allows, compare to BEA's Marine Satellite Account (MESA) estimate of seafood economic impacts.

Phase 4: Reporting and Recommendations (2026 POP pending available funds & 2027 POP pending available funds)

• Prepare a report presenting:
  • Methods for model development
  • Sources (literature or data) for calibrating the model
  • Guide for using the new National Commercial IO Model
  • Recommendations for NOAA Fisheries regarding updating models, research projects that could support future development of the National Commercial IO model, data collection, and other findings

Available data:

Researchers will be able to leverage the data available within NOAA Fisheries to carry out the analysis. At the national level NOAA Fisheries maintains is comprehensive annual data by state on landings (ex-vessel) volume, value, and prices. If necessary it may be possible to obtain landings data at a higher spatial or temporal resolution for some fish species. Data on the processing sector volume value and price is available through NOAA Fisheries Processed Products Database. International seafood trade data is available through NOAA Fisheries trade data portal for trade between the U.S. and the ROW. Additional, international trade data between countries not involving the U.S. is available through Global Trade Atlas. Weekly retail seafood market data (at a quarterly lag) is available by state and product type. There is no known source for comprehensive data on seafood sales in the food service sector, though there are some broad indicators that may be of use. Additional data purchase may be an option depending on cost and value to the project.

Deliverables/Due Dates:

Deliverables will be the new National Commercial Seafood IO model in IMPLAN (see phase 3 above) with a report as described in Phase 4 above.

Salary range: $75,000 - $90,000

General Description of Benefits

• Master's in economics or related fields using input-output methodology.
• Work history in Input-Output modeling. Two or more published papers utilizing Input-Output models.
• Expertise in IMPLAN software and cloud.